Afghanistan Taliban close in on Kabul as key city of Jalalabad falls live updates

Daniel L Davis, a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lieutenant Colonel in the US army on how the Taliban is managing to take Afghanistan so quickly:

The [Afghan National Defense Security Forces] right now has an army, on paper, of 300,000 men, been given training by the most powerful military alliance on earth, received hundreds of billions in support, has at least a rudimentary air force, an armoured fleet and the backing of its government.

The Taliban, in contrast, has approximately 75,000 men, no formal backing from any state, no trained army, no air force, no technology, and only what vehicles and weapons they can scrounge on the open market â€" yet they are dominating their more numerous, better equipped and better-funded opponents. The reasons the ANDSF has thus far failed, however, are not hard to identify.

For the better part of at least the past 15 years, senior US civilian and uniformed leaders have been publicly telling the American people that the war in Afghanistan was necessary for US security, making progress, and supporting an Afghan security force that was performing well. All of it, from the beginning, was a lie.

Analysis from the New York Times:

President Biden’s top advisers concede they were stunned by the rapid collapse of the Afghan army in the face of an aggressive, well-planned offensive by the Taliban that now threatens Kabul, Afghanistan’s capital.

The past 20 years show they should not have been.

If there is a consistent theme over two decades of war in Afghanistan, it is the overestimation of the results of the $83 billion the United States has spent since 2001 training and equipping the Afghan security forces and an underestimation of the brutal, wily strategy of the Taliban. The Pentagon had issued dire warnings to Mr. Biden even before he took office about the potential for the Taliban to overrun the Afghan army, but intelligence estimates, now shown to have badly missed the mark, assessed it might happen in 18 months, not weeks.

Here is a map showing where the latest two cities to fall to the Taliban â€" Mazar-i-Sharif and Jalalabad â€" are in relation to Kabul:

Map of Afghan cities taken by Taliban.

An Afghan interpreter who was by the side of an Australian soldier slain in battle says he has been abandoned by the Australian government and is resigned to his all but certain death, as Taliban forces seize back swathes of the country.

Australia is preparing to evacuate hundreds of people from Afghanistan, the ABC reported on Sunday, but on the ground former interpreters and contractors for the ADF have said they hold out little hope of rescue.

Kate Banville reports for the Guardian:

Writing in the FT, the paper’s chief foreign affairs columnistGideon Rachman argues that “Joe Biden’s credibility has been shredded in Afghanistan”. He writes:

If Donald Trump were presiding over the debacle in Afghanistan, the US foreign policy establishment would be loudly condemning the irresponsibility and immorality of American strategy. Since it is Joe Biden in the White House there is instead, largely, an embarrassed silence.

It is true that Trump set the US on the path out of Afghanistan and began the delusional peace talks with the Taliban that have gone nowhere. But rather than reverse the withdrawal of troops, Biden accelerated it.

...

The US failure makes it much harder for Biden to push his core message that “America is back”. By contrast, it fits perfectly with two key messages pushed by the Chinese (and Russian) governments. First, that US power is in decline. Second, that American security guarantees cannot be relied upon.

If the US will not commit to a fight against the Taliban, there will be a question mark over whether America would really be willing to go to war with China or Russia. Yet America’s global network of alliances is based on the idea that, in the last resort, US troops would indeed be deployed to defend their allies in Asia, Europe and elsewhere.

The Taliban now control every major Afghan city except Kabul.

A little more on Jalalabad, via the Associated Press:

An Afghan lawmaker and the Taliban say the militants have seized Jalalabad, cutting off Kabul to the east.

The militants posted photos online early Sunday showing them in the governor’s office in Jalalabad, the capital of Nangarhar province.

Abrarullah Murad, a lawmaker from the province told The Associated Press that the insurgents seized Jalalabad after elders negotiated the fall of the government there.

More on the view from Australia: Prime Minister Scott Morrison addressed the media in Canberra this morning to announce a National Security Committee of Cabinet meeting yesterday was held to discuss the region, which he described as “highly volatile and dangerous”.

He would not comment any further other than to say Australia was “working closely with our partners to ensure a coordinated response, but we will not be discussing any operational plans at this point.”

ABC reported last night that Australia was joining the US and UK militaries and security forces in an evacuation mission of embassy staff, Australians working for Afghan and international charities and non-government organisations, will also be offered evacuation, as well as journalists and some dual citizens, and Afghans who worked alongside Australian troops.

Australia’s contribution to the mercy mission will be far less than the US, who will also be emptying their Embassy in what is an extraordinary move, highlighting the dire situation unfolding as the Taliban capture swathes of the country.

Australia was the first country in the Western alliance to end its on-ground diplomatic representation in Afghanistan when it shut its embassy abruptly on 18 June.

Australia’s battle ready group is based in Townsville. Defence sources tell us two of the three infantry battalions have been given a notice to move and are preparing to deploy, which is expected to happen within days, and touch down in the region on RAAF planes by the end of the week.

Well-placed sources speaking to former colleagues and NGO staff members still in Kabul say they’ve been told to send all their Afghan staff home and prepare to leave within 72 hours.

It will be almost impossible for anyone to be evacuated from anywhere other than Kabul, leaving those Southern Afghanistan without a lifeline.

It’s unclear what role Australia will play in the coalition mission, as medical equipment and staff, immigration staff would be needed to rapidly work through outstanding visa applications for Afghans who assisted Australia.

The Taliban took control of Afghanistan’s key eastern city of Jalalabad without a fight on Sunday morning, securing the roads connecting the country to Pakistan, officials told Reuters early on Sunday morning.

“There are no clashes taking place right now in Jalalabad because the governor has surrendered to the Taliban,” a Jalalabad-based Afghan official told Reuters.

“Allowing passage to the Taliban was the only way to save civilian lives.”

A western security official also confirmed the fall of the city, one of the last besides the capital Kabul to remain under government control.

The animated version of the map I posted earlier:

Bill Roggio (@billroggio)

Time lapse video of the Taliban's offensive when it began taking over provincial capitals and provinces. pic.twitter.com/le6Sx8ZwYY

August 14, 2021

From Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence Democracies:

Bill Roggio (@billroggio)

The Taliban has entered Jalalabad and has reached the police station. Taliban advance appears to be unopposed. See thread below. Status of city is unclear, likely Taliban controlled. If so, this means Kabul is now effectively surrounded, all major roads to Kabul are closed. https://t.co/J1aX3VgPyw

August 15, 2021 Bill Roggio (@billroggio)

It I undeniable, Jalalabad is now under Taliban control. Given the city's importance to the province, Nangarhar is now assessed as Taliban controlled. Whatever pockets of possible resistance exist won't exist for long. Kabul is effectively surrounded. https://t.co/qfPCesKJxK

August 15, 2021

We’ll have more from Jalalabad shortly. Reuters is reporting that the Taliban’s taking of the city has been confirmed by an official source.

US secretary of state Anthony Blinken has just tweeted that he has had a “wery productive conversation” with Canada’s foreign minister:

Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken)

Very productive conversation with Canadian Foreign Minister @MarcGarneau about our efforts to reach a diplomatic solution in Afghanistan. I am grateful for Canada’s shared commitment to bring vulnerable Afghans to safety.

August 15, 2021

US Embassy personnel have been ordered to urgently destroy sensitive documents, according to two US military officials who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the situation.

This has also been reported by CNN and NPR.

A thread:

Katherine Brown (@_KatherineBrown)

The @USEmbassyKabul is being evacuated. We’ve been here before, but not at this scale & with this terrifying urgency. I first came to Kabul as an embassy aide in 2003. Want to reflect here on the place’s history and what it’s meant for thousands who've served there

(1/11)

August 15, 2021

Here is a map via the FDD’s Long War Journal showing Taliban control in Afghanistan. As mentioned in the previous post, it appears that Jalalabad â€" on the eastern edge of the country â€" has now fallen, too:

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