Tight exit polls in Germany point to long battle over forging post-Merkel government

Fabrizio Bensch Reuters German Chancellor Angela Merkel appears at Christian Democratic Union party headquarters in Berlin on Sept. 26.

BERLIN â€" Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats on Sunday appeared headed for their worst-ever election result, setting the scene for what could be weeks of uncertainty over what a post-Merkel government might look like.

An initial exit poll that flashed up in front of party officials at Konrad Adenauer Haus put the center-right conservatives at 25 percent of the vote, a drop of eight points from their results four years ago. But as votes were counted, projected results had them falling two percentage points behind their traditional center-left rival.

The election results will shape the future of policy not only in Berlin, but across Europe, where Merkel’s veteran hand will be absent as she moves into retirement. But the exit polls suggest long negotiations to build a new government, with no easy path to a majority coalition in parliament for either of the leading parties: the Christian Democrats or the center-left Social Democrats.

The wrangling comes amid a challenging backdrop for Germany and the European Union, including questions of how to steer the bloc’s finances after the coronavirus pandemic and coordinate the continent’s stance toward Russia and China.

As midnight approached in Berlin, projections based on partial results from both Infratest dimap/ARD and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF put the Social Democrats narrowly ahead, 26 percent to 24 percent.

[Election results: The candidates, the seats, the coalition options]

Analysts warn that early results could be less accurate this time because of the large number of mail-in ballots, which could account for as much as 40 percent of the vote. Plus the race is tight.

Fabrizio Bensch

Reuters

Christian Democratic Union leader and candidate for chancellor Armin Laschet in Berlin on Sept. 26.

If the final results stay similar, it would be Merkel’s party’s worst performance since it was formed in 1945. They would also mean that whichever party came out on top, it would need the support of at least two other parties to form a coalition â€" leading to potentially rocky talks.

Preliminary results are expected Monday morning.

“We cannot be satisfied with the result,” said Armin Laschet, the Christian Democrats’ candidate for chancellor, as he spoke to the crowd of party officials and journalists. Still, he appeared set on forming a government, saying that the party would do “everything possible” to act.

Supporters of the Social Democrats, meanwhile, celebrated their rise after Merkel’s 16-year hold on leadership.

At the Social Democrats’ headquarters in Berlin, the crowd cheered as a second initial exit poll showed the party narrowly ahead. Taking to the stage, chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz said the party would wait for the final result, “and then we will get to work.”

“This will be a long election night,” he said. “But what’s also clear is that a lot of voters cast their ballots for the Social Democrats because they want a change in government, and also because they want the next chancellor to be called Olaf Scholz.”

Still, there was no clear path to the chancellor’s office for either man.

Depending on the coalition-building, it could be Laschet, 60, who has overseen a campaign marked by blunders but also one that had gained momentum in recent weeks.

Or it could be Scholz, the 63-year-old finance minister in the current coalition government, who has tried to present himself as the continuity candidate.

[Opinion: Merkel’s departure will be felt in a world that needs democratic champions more than ever]

Lisa Leutner

AP

Chancellor hopeful Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party addresses his supporters at party headquarters in Berlin on Sept. 26.

“It’s a historic collapse,” Thorsten Faas, a political scientist with the Free University Berlin, said of the conservative bloc’s showing. “A very long evening â€" and likely very long weeks â€" are ahead of us,” he said, referring to the close count and likelihood of extended coalition negotiations.

Scholz’s Social Democrats, however, basked in the early results.

The party has seen a change in its fortunes, after it came in 12 percentage points behind the Christian Democrats in the election four years ago.

“The joy is enormous,” said Malu Dreyer, a former deputy chairwoman of the party and minister-president of the Rhineland-Palatinate state. “We have really caught up over the last few weeks. The SPD is back and we’re a people’s party. There’s no doubt about that.”

She expressed confidence that the party’s small lead will hold and it can start coalition outreach.

“All I can say today is: You don’t become chancellor by being loudest, but by having good results, by speaking to your colleagues and by finding good solutions,” she said.

The exit polls pointed to two coalition options â€" nicknamed for various color combinations â€" that are politically palatable to Laschet or Scholz.

One is the “traffic light” coalition between the Social Democrats (red), the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats (yellow). The other is the “Jamaica” alliance named after the Caribbean country’s flag: led by the Christian Democrats (black) and including the Greens and the Free Democrats.

[What you need to know about Germany’s election]

The Greens have made clear that they prefer to work with Scholz’s party. The Free Democrats lean toward Laschet’s. That makes either option hard to broker.

Peter Neumann, recently brought on as part of Laschet’s “team of the future” to bolster a flagging campaign, said that talks could realistically stretch until Christmas, a prediction that was echoed by the lead candidates in a television interview.

“It’s a good chance that Angela Merkel gives the next new year speech,” he said, referring to the chancellor’s annual address. to the nation.

Kay Nietfeld

AP

Annalena Baerbock, candidate for chancellor and leader of the Greens, takes the stage at an election event in Berlin on Sept. 26.

He said there is nothing to stop the Christian Democrats from trying to form a government, even if they come in second. “It’s not about who the strongest party is, but who can mobilize the majority,” he said.

The campaign was “pretty bad for a long time,” but it had picked up in recent weeks, he said. Merkel joined the campaign and her party emphasized that a potential Social Democrat coalition could include the far-left Die Linke, hated by much of German society for its ties to East Germany’s former ruling party.

A better showing for the party might have given Scholz more coalition options, but one projection had it failing to even reach the 5 percent minimum threshold needed to get into parliament.

One of the most damaging moments for Laschet came during Germany’s summer floods, when he was caught laughing on camera during an event to remember victims.

Ursula Münch, the director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, said the Christian Democrats and their sister party had taken for granted the new voters Merkel had won over during her long tenure, including older women.

“That’s a trust one has to earn, and that’s something the CDU didn’t consider sufficiently,” she said.

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What is clear, however, is that the Greens are in a potentially powerful position as kingmakers â€" gaining their best result with projections around 15 percent.

Cheers echoed through the Columbiahalle near Berlin’s historic Tempelhof airfield, as exit polls flashed over the screens at the Green Party’s election night venue. But the party’s candidate for chancellor, 40-year-old Annalena Baerbock, expressed some disappointment.

“We wanted more, and we failed to achieve that because of mistakes made at the beginning of the campaign,” Baerbock said. “Mistakes made by me.”

Several blunders derailed Baerbock’s early surge in the polls: A failure to declare expenses in time, embellishments on her resume and accusations of plagiarism in her book.

But when Baerbock strode onto the stage, the crowd was in a forgiving mood. Her speech was interrupted by loud cheers and waves of clapping. The Greens looked like they may make some regional gains.

In Berlin’s local elections, which also took place on Sunday, the Greens were predicted to become the biggest party.

“We have managed to make this election an election about the environment,” said Bettina Jarasch, a Green candidate for Berlin.

According to early projections, the far-right Alternative for Germany party was predicted to get about 11 percent of the vote. With immigration less in the spotlight since the party entered parliament with 13 percent of the vote four years ago, it has turned its focus toward railing against coronavirus restrictions and vaccine mandates.

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